Category: Eurasia Center

Wagner drama drags Belarus deeper into Russia’s wartime turbulence

Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka appears eager to take full credit for his role in countering Russia’s short-lived but hugely significant recent Wagner rebellion. Speaking on June 27 just days after the uprising came to an abrupt end, Lukashenka provided a detailed and highly flattering account of negotiations with Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin that contrasted his

Ukrainians have good reason to cheer Russia’s Wagner rebellion

As the Wagner mutiny unfolded in Russia over the weekend, Ukrainian social media was flooded with memes about popcorn as millions of Ukrainians settled down to enjoy the spectacle. This gleeful reaction was perhaps predictable, given the unimaginable horror and suffering Russia has brought to Ukraine over the past sixteen months, but there may also

How Ukraine can pin down Russia in Crimea without a land campaign

Crimea is the location that most often captures international attention when it comes to Ukraine’s fight to regain all its lost territory. But it would be militarily foolish for Ukraine, as part of the counteroffensive that is now underway, to charge into the Russian-occupied peninsula. Instead, there are ways for the Ukrainians to render Crimea

Five steps toward Ukrainian victory and a lasting peace with Russia

A few years ago, against the backdrop of a national pro-democracy uprising in Belarus, I called on European leaders to develop a clear strategy for Eastern Europe. This envisaged EU and NATO membership for Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and a free Belarus. Alas, many European politicians preferred to wait and see. It is admittedly difficult to

Short-lived Wagner mutiny will undermine Russia’s Ukraine invasion

As suddenly as it had begun twenty-four hours earlier, Wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s rebellion against Russia’s military leadership came to an abrupt end on Saturday evening. The details of the deal struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin remain murky, but the Russian warlord appears to have emerged from the drama relatively unscathed, at least for

Prigozhin walks away. Where does his halted mutiny leave Putin?

JUST IN What’s done cannot be undone. Wagner Group founder Yevgeniy Prigozhin launched a mutiny against the Russian ministry of defense this weekend, taking over the Southern Military District headquarters in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don before turning toward Moscow. Then just as suddenly, he halted his advance without a violent confrontation. Hours after charging

Putin is losing control of Russia

This article was updated on June 24 to reflect the deal between Wagner Group forces and the Russian government. Over the past forty-eight hours, the news out of Russia has been riveting. Yevgeniy Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner group of mercenaries, announced that the Russian military bombed his troops’ camps in Ukraine and that he

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is a marathon not a blitzkrieg

Less than two weeks since he first confirmed that Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive was finally underway, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy already finds himself forced to hit back at criticism over the pace of military operations. “Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not,” he told the BBC on June 21.