Category: Crisis Management

Tracking mercenaries

In Season 1, Episode 7 of the Guns for Hire podcast, host Alia Brahimi is joined by the Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins. They discuss the importance of Libya to the genesis of Bellingcat, the events which led to Eliot being personally sued by the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prighozin, and how anyone with a bit of

Semtex teddy bear: The mercenary build-up in Libya

In Season 1, Episode 6 of the Guns for Hire podcast, host Alia Brahimi is joined by her Atlantic Council colleague Emadeddin Badi. They discuss the surge of African, Syrian and Russian mercenaries in Libya since 2019, the major value-add of Wagner Group contractors in terms of mortar and sniping capabilities, and how mercenary recruitment

NATO must respond to Russia’s provocations in Belarus

Tensions have escalated in the region surrounding the Suwalki Gap, a strategically significant corridor linking Poland to Lithuania—and thus also to Latvia and Estonia. The narrow corridor is flanked by Russia’s heavily militarized Baltic enclave, Kaliningrad, and Belarus, whose leader, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, is a supplicating ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Were Putin to

What Niger’s coup means for West Africa’s geopolitical contest

On Thursday, August 3, a day that marks Niger’s independence from France in 1960, hundreds of Nigeriens gathered in Independence Square in Niamey to voice their support for the ongoing coup. Over the past week, Africans and their Western partners have seemed surprised by the events in Niger. Many in France are shocked, having not seen

Arctic security is increasingly under threat. Drones can help.

As the Arctic continues to be fundamentally reshaped, the United States and its allies in the region will need to quickly adapt by strengthening their collective security and expanding their Arctic awareness. Arctic-ready unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) can help them adjust to the changing landscape. The transformation of the Arctic—one of the world’s harshest environments—is

Dispatch from Odesa: Russia escalates its naval war against Ukraine

In recent days, the front line of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine appears to have shifted south toward the Black Sea—placing major port cities such as Mykolaiv and Odesa directly in the crosshairs of a Russian naval buildup that began just before its full-scale invasion in February 2022. While exact numbers are difficult to come by,

Prepare for the worst: Five steps for leaders in an age of crises

Crises are guaranteed: war and pandemics, infrastructure failures and terror threats, extreme weather and climate disasters. In a world in which extreme events seem to be increasing in frequency and severity, policymakers and government officials need to do more to prepare for them. That means gleaning emerging lessons on preparedness from crises such as the

After Wagner: Could the Russian army now turn against Putin?

The Wagner mutiny in late June was a brief affair, but it is casting a long shadow over Putin’s Russia. In less than forty-eight hours, Wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his troops succeeded in shattering the carefully constructed myth of Putin the strongman, while exposing the weakness at the heart of his regime. Although the

The NATO Summit’s underwhelming support for Ukraine

JUST IN It’s a fast track with a slow start. NATO leaders meeting in Vilnius today released their summit communiqué, in which they said that Ukraine no longer needs to complete a membership action plan to join the Alliance—but that an invitation would only be extended “when allies agree and conditions are met.” In the