For how long can Putin still cling to power?

At the start of Putin’s 2023 war with Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron, former banker and currently President of France, constantly pushed for ‘talks’ with Putin as Putin’s forces relentlessly bombarded the civilians and infrastructure of Ukraine with swarms of his Iranian UAV “doodlebug” bombers.

And today, in light of Xi Jinping’s recent meetings in Moscow with Putin, Macron has jetted off to Beijing on a 3-day visit to China to meet with Xi Jinping, with essentially the same political framework of “talks” as he initially had with Putin himself to end Putin’s war with Ukraine.

BBC News : 5 April 2023 : YouTube

As reported by Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch,

“Within hours of touching down in China Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron made clear one of the main objectives of his visit— ensuring China plays a role in forging peace in Ukraine.

“China, with its close relationship with Russia, which has been reaffirmed in recent days, can play a major role,” he told members of the French community in Paris. “Do we agree with everything [in China’s plan]?” he said, referring to China’s 12-point peace plan unveiled in February. “No,” he said. “However it shows … a will to play a responsible role and try to build a pathway to peace.” (Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

As with his “talks” with Putin shortly after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, “others are more skeptical about China’s intentions”. (ibid Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch)

As Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch, further report,

“Similarly, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly (left) told POLITICO on the fringes of the NATO summit that while there are “certain elements” within the plan that Britain supports, the U.K. would like to see China “making good on those statements and actually working towards demanding that Russia respects those things (e.g. Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty) as well.”  (Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis) 

President Zelensky (right: Zelensky and wife) has renewed hopes of ‘peace talks’ with Putin by suggesting, as reported by Christian Oliver, that,

“Ukraine renewed Western hopes for peace talks last night after suggesting it could be ‘ready’ to discuss the future of Crimea with Russia once Kyiv’s forces reached the border of Putin’s illegally occupied peninsula.

Andriy Sybiha, a top advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky and deputy head of his office, told the Financial Times that Kyiv could soon be ‘ready’ to enter talks.” (Mail Online : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin’s current state of mind would indicate, however, that “peace talks” with Zelensky would indeed be akin to Putin signing his own ‘political’ death warrant.

As reported by Rachael Bunyan (left),

“[Gleb] Karakulov (an officer in the Kremlin leader’s secretive elite personal security service) depicted Putin as an increasingly isolated leader who lives in an ‘information vacuum’ in heavily guarded residences, which he called ‘bunkers’.
…
He said Putin’s paranoia has deepened since he invaded Ukraine and detailed how the despot ordered a bunker to be set up at the Russian Embassy in Kazakhstan and secured with a secure communications line last October.   

‘It is a kind of paranoia,’ Karakulov said. ‘He is pathologically afraid for his life.'” (Mail Online : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

NBC News : 5 April 2023

Underlining Putin’s current state of mind, Christian Oliver reports that,

 “Oleksiy Danilov (left), the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the West must be on high alert, having in the past failed to be ready for the collapse of the Soviet Union.

He said Kyiv believes Russia is going to fall apart in ‘spectacular’ fashion within the next few years.
…
He said Russia has lost its power over once-loyal allies in Asia, with China now waiting for the collapse of Russia to take the Siberian Far East where there are significant Chinese populations.” (Mail Online : 4 April 2023) (my emphasis) (c.f. also: The Times : 3 April 2023)

As also reported by Rhiannon Du Cann (right),

“Professor Galeotti told Express.co.uk that the 70-year-old President’s regime is now so “brittle” that an inevitable crisis will most likely be the cause of his fall.

He said: “It looks still very tough but it’s that much less flexible, less able to cope with crises. The point is that one of the guaranteed things in politics is you’ll be confronted with the unexpected at some point.

“When that happens, I think that Putin and Putin’s regime will be that much less able to deal with it. I have no idea if that’s going to be in a month, or a year, or a decade’s time.” (Express : 30 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported earlier by Yahoo News (The Kyiv Independent),

“Despite Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s claim that the Russian economy is expected to grow in 2023, “retail sales remain in a contraction that’s already more drawn out than its declines” during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Bloomberg’s latest report.

Bloomberg reported the consumer sector accounts for about half of Russia’s economy.

In January, retail sales in Russia shrank an estimated 10.7% from last year, “falling for a 10th straight month in a stretch longer than their crash at the height of the pandemic in 2020,” according to the report. Bloomberg also says that in December the real wages “probably fell” at the “sharpest pace in five months.” (Yahoo News (The Kyiv Independent) : 1 March 2023) (my emphasis)

For how long can Putin still cling to power?

(to be continued)