Ukraine’s invasion of Russia exposes the folly of the West’s escalation fears
Units of the Ukrainian army crossed the border into Russia for the first time on August 6, marking the launch of a surprise summer offensive that is rapidly transforming the dynamics of the invasion unleashed by Vladimir Putin almost exactly two-and-a-half years ago.
During the first week of Ukraine’s counter-invasion, Ukrainian forces established control over approximately one thousand square kilometers of land in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky. This is comparable to the total amount of Ukrainian land seized by Russia since the start of 2024. Ukraine is now moving to establish a military administration over areas of Russia under Kyiv’s control.
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is a remarkably bold gamble that could prove to be a turning point in the wider war. Defining the strategy and motives behind the operation is a matter for Ukraine’s political and military leadership. However, at this early stage, I believe it is already possible to identify a number of initial successes.
The attack clearly caught the unsuspecting Russians completely off-guard, despite the near ubiquity of surveillance drones on the modern battlefield. This represents a major achievement for Ukraine’s military commanders that has bolstered their already growing international reputation.
Ukraine’s unexpected offensive has also exposed the weakness of the Putin regime. Throughout his twenty-five year reign, Putin has positioned himself as the strongman ruler of a resurgent military superpower. However, when Russia was invaded for the first time since World War II, it took him days to react. As the BBC reports, he has since avoided using the word “invasion,” speaking instead of “the situation in the border area” or “the events that are taking place,” while deliberately downplaying Ukraine’s offensive by referring to it as “a provocation.”
The response of the once-vaunted Russian military has been equally underwhelming, with large groups of mostly conscript soldiers reportedly surrendering to the rapidly advancing Ukrainians during the first ten days of the invasion. Far from guaranteeing Russia’s security, Putin appears to have left the country unprepared to defend itself.
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Ukraine’s dramatic change in tactics comes after almost a year of slow but steady Russian gains in eastern and southern Ukraine. Since 2023, Russian commanders have been deploying their country’s overwhelming manpower and firepower advantages to gradually pummel Ukrainian forces into submission. The Kremlin’s reliance on brute force has proved costly but effective, leaving the Ukrainian military with little choice but to think outside the box.
It has long been obvious that fighting a war of attrition is a losing strategy for Ukraine. The country’s military leaders cannot hope to compete with Russia’s far larger resources and have no desire to match the Kremlin’s disregard for casualties. The Kursk offensive is an attempt to break out of this suffocating situation by returning to a war of mobility and maneuver that favors the more agile and innovative Ukrainian military. So far, it seems to be working.
While bringing Vladimir Putin’s invasion home to Russia has undeniable strategic and emotional appeal, many commentators have questioned why Ukraine would want to occupy Russian territory. The most obvious explanation is that Kyiv seeks bargaining chips to exchange for Russian-occupied Ukrainian lands during future negotiations.
The significant quantity of Russian POWs captured during the offensive also opens up possibilities to bring more imprisoned Ukrainian soldiers home. Meanwhile, control over swathes of Kursk Oblast could make it possible to disrupt the logistical chains supplying the Russian army in Ukraine.
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Beyond the military practicalities of the battlefield, the Kursk offensive is challenging some of the most fundamental assumptions about the war. Crucially, Ukraine’s invasion of Russia has demonstrated that Putin’s nuclear threats and his talk of red lines are in reality a big bluff designed to intimidate the West.
Ukrainians have long accused Western policymakers of being overly concerned about the dangers of provoking Putin. They argue that since 2022, the international response to Russian aggression has been hampered by a widespread fear of escalation that has led to regular delays in military aid and absurd restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Ukraine’s offensive has now made a mockery of this excessive caution. If the Kremlin does not view the actual invasion of Russia by a foreign army as worthy of a major escalation, it is hard to imagine what would qualify.
As the Kursk offensive unfolds, Ukraine is hoping the country’s allies will draw the logical conclusions. Initial indications are encouraging, with US and EU officials voicing their support for Ukraine’s cross-border incursion despite longstanding concerns over any military operations inside Russia. At the same time, restrictions on the use of certain categories of weapons remain in place. This is hindering the advance of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast. It is also preventing Kyiv from striking back against the airbases used to bomb Ukrainian cities and the country’s civilian infrastructure.
Ukraine’s Kursk offensive represents a powerful signal to the country’s partners. It demonstrates that the Ukrainian military is a highly professional force capable of conducting complex offensive operations and worthy of greater international backing. It also confirms that Putin’s Russia is dangerously overstretched and is militarily far weaker than it pretends to be.
The muddled and unconvincing Russian response to Ukraine’s invasion speaks volumes about the relative powerlessness of the Putin regime. This should persuade Kyiv’s allies of the need for greater boldness and convince them that the time has come to commit to Ukrainian victory.
Oleksiy Goncharenko is a Ukrainian member of parliament with the European Solidarity party.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
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Image: Ukrainian service members ride an Armoured Personnel Carrier, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, near the Russian border in Sumy region. Ukraine August 11, 2024. (REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi)
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