The Syrian parliamentary elections are coming up. Should anyone care?

This summer, elections for the Syrian People’s Assembly will be held in the areas controlled by the government under Bashar al-Assad. As the electoral process unfolds, a series of articles will deconstruct the key elements of Syrian elections and their role in legitimizing Baath Party rule. It will also conduct a deep dive into the challenges of moving ahead with electoral reform in the United Nations (UN)-facilitated political process.

The political environment in Syria has remained unchanged since the 2020 elections. Thus, the polls will be held again against a backdrop of massive displacement, unresolved conflict, partial occupation, and an intransigent regime. At the same time, the Independent High Electoral Commission of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) announced elections for municipal councils on May 30. Whether these will be followed by elections for the AANES legislature is unclear.

In northwest Syria, the General Shura Council announced the formation of a Supreme Electoral Committee to organize elections. Of course, none of these elections are “free and fair”; they are about the consolidation of power, not political competition. But their results will determine the governance setup for years to come. Little is known about what the electoral process in the northeast, and particularly in northwest Syria, will look like. However, there are fairly good insights into the process managed by the Syrian government.

Historically, Syrian elections are rigged, and this election is no different. Some aspects of it are simple and in plain sight, especially the suppression of any genuine opposition, the lack of media freedoms or a safe space for civil society, and the enormous numbers of displaced voters. Other aspects are perhaps less obvious and could be overlooked when advocating or negotiating for political reforms. They appear somewhat mundane, such as the distribution of seats to electoral districts, the system of representation, and the ballot structure. Yet, they have a tremendous impact and have guaranteed an overwhelming Baath majority in parliament since 1973.

Separately, constitutional term limits for the presidency mean that the primary job of the next parliament will be to amend the constitution so that President Assad can run again in 2028. This is not unprecedented. In 2000, the parliament amended the constitution and lowered the age of candidacy from forty to thirty-four so that it could propose young Bashar for the presidency. When the UN-facilitated Syrian Constitutional Committee was set up in 2019 to discuss reforms as the prerequisite for ending the country’s civil war, some had hoped that the inevitable constitutional tweaks could present an opportunity for more substantial and negotiated constitutional reforms. But the committee has been inactive for two years, and any resurrection will need to wait for the rearranging of global political relations.

The 2015 United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2254 sees elections in the wider context of a negotiated political resolution of the conflict. However, these will be the sixth elections organized by the Syrian regime since the adoption of UNSC Resolution 2254 and the regime will again ignore the parameters it sets, which include free, fair, and transparent elections under UN supervision, inclusion of diaspora voters, and the meaningful participation of women.

The deadline for calling elections is May 11. Russian government statements are already legitimizing the process, and the Baath Party is currently holding internal elections that may not be directly linked to the parliamentary elections. In any case, the first step in the process is to update and audit the voter register, which should be completed by next week but has not yet started.

Unavoidably, Syria watchers will ask why these elections should matter at all. Yet, opportunities to observe Syrian political processes are limited, so looking at the 2024 Syrian parliamentary elections is an attempt to find any evidence that Assad has any policy for the future of Syria other than reinforcing a status quo of statistically implausible polls with no opposition. Considering that the reform of the constitution is inevitable, will the composition of the parliament matter?

Vladimir Pran advises electoral authorities, governments, and political leaders on transitional, electoral, and political processes.

Maroun Sfeir advises international and local civil society organizations, political groups, and electoral authorities on electoral and political processes.

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