Israel’s attack in Iran means full-scale war is closer than ever. Here’s what Iran is thinking now.
After a long waiting period, Israel has just executed its response to the October 1 Iranian missile attack against Israel. In complete contrast to Israel’s previous response following the Iranian attack in April, this time it is a broad, loud, and significant attack throughout Iran, conducted by hundreds of airplanes and coming in multiple waves.
It seems that in response to US government requests, and in an attempt to contain the escalation, Israel focused on military sites only. Early reports indicate that Israel hit Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sites and missile storage and production sites, carrying out a direct response to those who were responsible for the Iranian attack on Jewish New Year’s Eve. The ball now is in the hands of the Iranian leadership, which has committed in the past to an immediate response to any significant Israeli attack. It is not surprising that in its initial statements, the Iranian media is trying to minimize the scale and results of this attack to protect the image of the regime. But the fact that the Iranian leadership “climbed a tree” and committed itself to an immediate response still increases the likelihood that we are only at the beginning of another round of kinetic clashes between the countries.
As far as Iran is concerned, this is an unprecedented event. Since the Iran-Iraq war, Tehran has not suffered such attacks on its territory. The Iranian leadership is in a true dilemma. Iran’s leaders are obviously not interested in a regional war, and it is also clear to them that any response brings them closer to a regional war. They fear such a conflict, especially given the vast US military presence in the Middle East, but can they absorb this attack without retaliating and thus be exposed to future attacks?
The Supreme National Security Council will need to recommend to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei what to do next. Israel did not attack infrastructure or nuclear sites, and it might do that if Iran retaliates. But on the other hand, this was a broad and certainly not symbolic attack by Israel. A response to Israel will, in Iran’s view, balance the equation of deterrence against Israel. But it may well drag Iran into a war that it has been wary of entering since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023.
This is a historic night, as we are closer than ever to a direct war between Israel and Iran that can spill over to a regional war. Israel is admitting for the first time that it attacked Iran from the air, and even if this round is contained, we have entered a new era in relations between Israel and Iran that will have a significant impact toward their future. The Israeli “fear barrier” to attack inside Iran has broken. And the intensity and lethality of Iran’s response will clarify whether Tehran’s own fear barrier to a full-scale war with Israel will break as well. Or, if Iran instead responds in a way that fulfills its promise to do so, without triggering a bigger conflict.
The Biden administration will try to pressure Iran not to retaliate by emphasizing the “defensive nature” of the attack, but it won’t be easy. Interesting hours lie ahead.
Danny Citrinowicz is a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and a member of the Atlantic Council’s Iran Strategy Project working group. He previously served for twenty-five years in a variety of command positions units in Israel Defense Intelligence.
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Image: Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei visits the IRGC Aerospace Force achievements exhibition in Tehran, Iran November 19, 2023. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS.
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