What is Iran thinking now?

There’s a message in the missiles. Iran’s 180-missile barrage against Israel on Tuesday was largely ineffectual (though it did reportedly kill a Palestinian man in the West Bank) due to Israeli air defenses and US assistance. The assault was Tehran’s response to the assassination of top Hezbollah figures, including the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, and more could be coming as Israel undertakes a ground campaign inside Lebanon. We reached out to some of our experts who have been involved in the Atlantic Council’s forthcoming Iran Strategy Report, which offers a bipartisan path forward on one of Washington’s most contentious foreign policy issues. Below, they take us inside Tehran’s thinking.

• Kirsten Fontenrose: Nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former US National Security Council senior director for the Gulf
• Thomas S. Warrick (@TomWarrickAC): Nonresident senior fellow in the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and former US State Department official focused on the Middle East
• Danny Citrinowicz (@citrinowicz): Nonresident fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and former head of the Iran branch in the Research and Analysis Division of Israeli defense intelligence

Off the bench

• With Tuesday’s attack, Iran played the role of “pinch hitter” for its Axis of Resistance proxy network, Kirsten explains. “The line-ups for Hamas and Hezbollah are predominantly on the injured list or out of the game. The Houthis lost the last inning. Iran had no choice but to get back on the field to try to salvage their game.”
• But Iran didn’t exactly hit a home run—nor did it want to. “Iran was careful to stress that this attack targeted only military sites,” Kirsten tells us. “Tehran hopes that Israel will feel compelled to similarly focus its response.”
• The pattern mirrors what happened not just in April—when an Iranian drone and missile attack against Israel was largely thwarted—but also other incidents, such as foiled assassination plots in the United States and a recent hack of the Trump campaign that failed to generate media buzz.
• “Iran’s repeated failures have all produced consequences, but those consequences are far more limited than would have been the case if any of Iran’s attacks had succeeded,” Tom points out. “Iranian leaders should appreciate that at some point, their ‘luck’ will run out.”

Wait time

• Israel’s response to the missile barrage— that it will respond “at a time and place of its choosing”—“forces Iran to expend the manpower and resources to sustain a heightened defensive posture,” while Israel can continue its campaigns against Hezbollah and Hamas, Kirsten notes. 
• “Iran must now choose whether to sit back and watch its prize proxy be surgically disassembled or take more action and invite the kind of response some of Israel’s leaders would like an excuse to deliver,” Kirsten says.
• In the meantime, you can expect Iran to work with Russia to “dramatically increase its military capabilities,” Danny says. Tehran is also likely to threaten “that it will not hesitate to attack those who cooperate with any military action by Israel against Iran,” he adds, and Iran could even send forces outside its borders “in order to increase the projection of its power, including in the maritime domain.”

Build back better

• Danny expects the regime to also get to work on rebuilding its proxy network, starting with “massive military transfers” to Hezbollah and support for whoever the group’s new leader is. (Danny has his eye on Hashem Saffiedine, “who is very close to the Iranian leadership.”)
• Iran also will likely try to strengthen Hamas, its Shia militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen, and “increase the transfers of explosives to the West Bank,” Danny tells us. “This might ‘compensate’ for the dramatic damage that Hezbollah suffered in the war with Israel.
• Then there’s the question of Iran’s nuclear-weapons capability. Danny notes that there is a split within the Iranian government between those who want to “advance on the military path” and those, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, who are open to a nuclear deal with the West that “will significantly reduce the likelihood that someone will support an Israeli attack on its nuclear sites.” 
• Iranian leaders are calculating that Israel can be restrained and escalation avoided, but they may be “misreading Israel’s intentions and US backing for possible Israeli retaliation,” Danny says. Iran no longer has “protection” from Hezbollah, and Israel could be “preparing for a decisive blow to Iran that will force Tehran to retaliate again.”
• “We are only at the beginning of crucial hours and days that might lead to regional war,” he warns.

Further reading

Tue, Oct 1, 2024

The Israeli offensive and Iranian missile attack test two visions for the Middle East’s future

Inflection Points By Frederick Kempe

One vision is driven by Iran and its proxies. The other seeks to counter and contain Iran and lay the groundwork for the eventual emergence of a dynamic, peaceful, modernizing Middle East.

Conflict Iran

Tue, Oct 1, 2024

Four questions (and expert answers) about Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon

New Atlanticist By Shalom Lipner

Shalom Lipner, a former advisor to seven consecutive Israeli prime ministers, answers the burning questions about Israel’s strategy and what the US should do.

Conflict Crisis Management

Sat, Sep 28, 2024

Hezbollah is diminished, decapitated, and in disarray—but still dangerous

New Atlanticist By William F. Wechsler

The death of Hassan Nasrallah leaves Hezbollah weakened, but as Israel’s history with the Iran-backed group demonstrates, decapitation operations are often necessary to win the battle but always far from sufficient to win the peace.

Conflict Iran

Related Experts: Kirsten Fontenrose, Thomas S. Warrick, and Danny Citrinowicz  

Image: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei looks on during a meeting in Tehran, Iran, October 2, 2024. Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS