An increasingly thin blue line between Israel and Lebanon

Geopolitical observers are once again confronted with a precarious situation in the post-October 7, 2023, Middle East. The recent escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah is merely the latest development in a long-simmering conflict that has been allowed to fester for nearly two decades. Hezbollah and Israel first clashed during the South Lebanon conflict of 1985, although their biggest fight was the 2006 Lebanon War. Tensions have remained high since then, with both sides regularly exchanging blows but never quite escalating to all-out war. This analysis seeks to unpack the current state of affairs and explore the implications of this growing crisis.

The roots of the current tension can be traced back to the Israeli Defense Forces’ (IDF) withdrawals from the Gaza Strip in 2005 and Lebanon in 2006. Since then, Hamas and Hezbollah have been allowed to grow their capabilities, largely unchecked by Israel. While Israel has had a policy of “mowing the grass” in Gaza—i.e., regularly launching attacks into the strip to degrade Hamas’s capabilities—this has not prevented the Palestinian group from building more than five hundred kilometers of tunnel, its greatest asset in its war against Israel. For context, Hamas has built an underground system roughly the size of the London Underground. Israel’s actions toward Hezbollah have been even more hands-off since 2006, largely limited to strikes against Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria. This has allowed Hezbollah to greatly expand its stockpile of missiles, giving the group the ability to escalate a conflict against Israel far beyond previous wars. The result is a volatile situation akin to a tinderbox.

While recent events, such as an Israeli airstrike on July 3 that killed Mohammad Naameh Nasser, a senior Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, have exacerbated tensions, they are merely symptoms of a much deeper, long-standing conflict. The ongoing exchange of fire across the Israel-Lebanon border is part of a series of tit-for-tat attacks that have characterized the relationship between these adversaries for years.

The specter of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah looms large. Hezbollah’s extensive rocket arsenal, which has significantly expanded since 2006, poses a grave threat to Israeli civilians. Israeli estimates put Hezbollah’s arsenal at roughly 150,000 rockets and missiles, while an IRGC Quds Force official boasted a stockpile of more than 1 million. Whatever the figure, these are not rudimentary missiles like Hamas’s Qassam rockets; Hezbollah’s arsenal is more sophisticated and dangerous—ranging from the smaller unguided Fajr-5, with a range of 75 kilometers, to powerful ballistic missiles such as the Fateh-110 and Scud variants, which can hit anywhere in Israel. So far, this has forced a mass evacuation of around sixty thousand Israeli residents from the north of the country.

The range and payload of these missiles have also allowed Hezbollah to threaten countries like Cyprus against providing any assistance to the IDF, meaning that the group has the ability to drag third parties into a wider conflict. Furthermore, an Israeli military offensive in Lebanon could potentially trigger responses from Hezbollah’s allies across the region, including Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The situation is complicated by the potential for direct conflict between Israel and Iran, which is no longer merely an academic concept after the retaliatory responses between the foes in April.

On the domestic front, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a multitude of challenges. Beyond the pressure to secure the northern border, he grapples with the ongoing hostage crisis, the lack of a clear “day after” plan for Gaza, and internal political strife. Corruption charges loom over Netanyahu but are currently held at bay by his immunity as prime minister. Political rivalries and domestic crises, such as that regarding the Supreme Court, have been put aside due to the unity government formed after October 7, 2023. However, these underlying issues are only delayed by the existential need to defeat Hamas. Once the threat subsides or the Israeli population tires of war, these issues will resurface.

The northern front with Hezbollah may serve as a distraction from these pressing issues, allowing Netanyahu to double down on security concerns. Hezbollah, too, faces domestic pressures. Lebanon has remained without a head of state for two years, and various political factions are pushing for accommodation in the presidency. The lack of a functioning and unified executive authority has led to political inaction over the country’s growing banking crisis, threatening to create one of the worst economic crises since 1857. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth contracted by 6.7 percent in 2019, followed by another contraction of more than 20 percent in 2020. Unemployment currently stands at more than 11 percent. Hezbollah must balance its ideological commitment to resistance against Israel with the complex realities of Lebanese politics and the potential consequences of escalation.

The Joe Biden administration also finds itself in a precarious position, with some officials raising the alarm over the evolving crisis and worries that Israel and Hezbollah might be underestimating the risks associated with their actions. The administration must navigate a delicate balance: showing unwavering support for Israel while simultaneously attempting to prevent a wider regional conflict. Domestic political considerations further complicate this balancing act, with the November US presidential election looming and the potential for criticism from both sides of the aisle. The diplomatic efforts to resolve this crisis face significant challenges. Even if a Gaza ceasefire were negotiated and Hezbollah ceased its rocket attacks, Israel is unlikely to sit quietly with the knowledge of such a big threat to its north. This places US diplomacy in a difficult position of finding incentives for Hezbollah to pull back from a position of strength while accommodating Israel’s security concerns.

Questions have been raised about the efficacy of current diplomatic channels, particularly the role of Amos Hochstein as the primary envoy. While Hochstein has experience in energy-related diplomacy between Lebanon and Israel, his background as a former IDF soldier and his lack of extensive experience in high-stakes geopolitical negotiations raise concerns about his suitability for mediating this potentially explosive situation.

The consequences of a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be catastrophic. Such a conflict would likely draw in the United States in a far more substantive way, potentially marking a return to the “forever wars” that recent administrations have sought to avoid. The potential for Iranian-backed fighters from across the region joining Hezbollah in a conflict against Israel adds another layer of complexity and risk to the situation. As the current state of affairs is assessed, it is clear that the situation in the Middle East remains extremely volatile and dangerous. This is not a fragile peace, but a combustible situation that threatens to escalate into what could be characterized as “a forever war on steroids.” The ongoing exchange of fire and the high risk of miscalculation make the prospect of a broader regional conflict a looming threat.

The international community, led by the United States, must double down on its diplomatic efforts and continue to urge restraint on all sides. However, these efforts must be led by experienced professionals with a deep understanding of the region’s complexities. The stakes are extraordinarily high, and the consequences of a full-scale war would be dire for both the region and global stability.

Daniel Elkins is the founder and president of the Special Operations Association of America. A former Green Beret and Special Operations combat veteran, he is also an Atlantic Council Counter-Terrorism Project member.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the positions of the United States government or the Department of Defense.

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Image: A commander from the Spanish troop of the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) seen in the UNIFIL position near Kfarkela. As the fight between Hezbollah, an Iran-back group and the Israeli forces intensified, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, UNIFIL is facing challenge to carry out the peacekeeping mission in the south of Lebanon near the border. UNIFIL is currently assisting the Lebanese government to maintain peace and stability across the “blue line”. via Reuters