Will Putin’s ‘siloviki’ now act to depose him?

 Brad Lendon (left) from CNN reports that,

” As the early stages of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian invaders is unfolding on the battlefield, hundreds of warplanes from some of Kyiv’s biggest supporters are in the skies over Germany as NATO holds its largest aerial war games ever.

“Air Defender 2023” is bringing together 250 warplanes – including 190 fighter jets – and 10,000 troops in drills designed to boost the alliance’s preparedness and ability “to protect against aircraft, drones and missile attacks on cities and critical infrastructure,” according to a NATO press release.” (CNN : 14 June 2023) (my emphasis)

CNN : 14 June 2023

As Amy Guttman (left) [US Ambassador to Germany] stated at the press conference,

“I would be pretty surprised if any world leader was not taking note of what this shows in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance. And that includes Mr. Putin” (ibid Brad lendon) 

What is even more significant is the fact that,

“Alliance members are making plans to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets of the same variety that are participating in the current war games.” (ibid Brad lendon) (cf. also: blog entry Monday, 22 May 2023)

Furthermore, as reported by Sylvie Corbet,

“The leaders of France, Germany and Poland met in Paris Monday for talks focusing on
military support for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and future security guarantees to be given to the country, ahead of a NATO summit in July.
…
In a show of unity, the three leaders insisted they would continue to support Ukraine for as long as necessary.
…
He [Macron] promised to continue deliveries of weapons, ammunition and armored vehicles “over the coming days and weeks.” (ABC News : 12 June 2023) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin was well aware of this formidable aerial war games of NATO, as well as the show of unity by France, Germany, and Poland.

In his recent comments about his war with Ukraine, Putin threatened to grab yet more land from Ukraine whilst, at the same time, offering ‘peace talks’ if the West desists from sending more arms to Ukraine.

As reported by the Associated Press (quoted by ABC News),

“Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday alternated threats of a new Russian offensive to grab more Ukrainian land with statements about the Kremlin’s readiness for peace talks.
…
Putin said Moscow could respond to alleged Ukrainian incursions and shelling of Russia’s border regions by carving out what he described as a “sanitary zone” to prevent Kyiv from launching such attacks.
…
The Russian leader said ending the hostilities in Ukraine depends on the United States. He argued that the fighting would end immediately if the U.S. and NATO stop providing Ukraine with weapons.” (ABC News : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)  

UPDATE 1: 16 June 2023

 As reported by Victor Jack and Jacopo Barigazzi,

“Bulgaria’s new defense minister said the country is looking to step up its support for EU efforts to supply Ukraine with the ammunition it needs to continue fighting Moscow’s troops.
…
“We are very clearly aiming at joining this coalition,” Todor Tagarev told POLITICO in an interview. “I think we will be able to provide some of the required ammunition for Ukraine.” (Politico : 15 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin must be aware that he is “whistling in the wind” by saying that, “the fighting would end immediately if the U.S. and NATO stop providing Ukraine with weapons.”

And as Putin changes his tone from “hawk” to “dove”, Tom Watling reports that,

“Wagner Group financier and internally recognised war criminal Yevgeny Prigozhin (right) issued yet another rebuke of the Armed Forces of Russia stationed in Ukraine on Tuesday in what he claimed was merely his update on the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives.
…
Russian forces are “not doing enough to fight back against” the rapidly advancing Ukrainian troops, the Wagner Group leader has claimed. As Russian President Vladimir Putin baselessly suggested during a meeting with military journalists on Tuesday that his forces had destroyed 160 Ukrainian tanks and 360 armoured vehicles since the beginning of the counter offensive, Yevgeny Prigozhin shrugged off the claims as inaccurate, saying Ukraine had suffered only “normal combat losses”. (Express : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no coincidence that, as reported by Kate Whitfield (left),

“Rampant speculation about the health of Russian President Vladimir Putin has persisted for months, with some sources now claiming his closest allies are getting nervous about his imminent demise.
…
The intelligence, leaked from the Pentagon, marked one of the most serious leaks of US intel in recent years.
…
It claimed that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov were behind the plot to “sabotage” Putin’s war effort. (Express : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, we now learn from John Varga (right) that,

“The Chechen rebel leader [Ruslan Kutaev] pointed to the creation of private militias by Russian oligarchs as evidence that Kremlin elites were preparing for political turmoil and conflict.
…
Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will spark vicious infighting between Kremlin elites that will plunge the country into a new civil war, according to a Chechen rebel leader. He also predicted that Chechens would rise up and overthrow their brutal President Ramzan Kadyrov and a new state unifying all the peoples of the Caucasus would emerge from the revolution’s ashes.” (Express : 11 June 2023) (my emphasis)

UPDATE 2: 16 June 2023

Perhaps more ominously, and underscoring the fact that his closest allies are getting nervous about Putin’s imminent demise, Kate Whitfield reports that,

“Now, however, as the war rumbles on and speculation surrounding Putin’s ill health or a possible coup mounts, experts have said that Xi might be implementing further steps to pave the way for a continued partnership post-Putin.
…

“In spite of all the greetings to and from Putin that Xi and Mishustin (left) exchanged, the obvious question arises: Why was [Russian Prime Minister] Mishustin invited and not Putin? This cannot have gone down well with the Russian leader.”

Mr Åslund argues these recent events are “perhaps the best evidence we have that China may be looking beyond Putin and seeking to cultivate alternative relationships in Russia”. (Express : 16 June 2023) (my emphasis).

Putin is, no doubt, aware that he is living on ‘borrowed time’.

This may account for the fact that Putin is now relying on Lukashenko to come to his aid.

 As reported by Andrew Osborn,

“Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Tuesday that Russian tactical nuclear weapons would be physically deployed on the territory of Belarus “in several days” and that he had the facilities to host longer-range missiles too if ever needed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia, which will retain control of the tactical nuclear weapons, would start deploying them in close ally Belarus after special storage facilities to house them were made ready on July 7-8.” (Reuters : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Cocooned from the rest of the world in his bunker, his health failing, and his war with Ukraine crumbling in his hands; Putin has nowhere else to go.

Members of his ‘siloviki’ are well aware of the danger that Putin now presents.

The only way out for them is now to rid themselves of Putin.