Has Putin wrapped himself up in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty?

Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz (left) in his posthumously published book, Vom Kriege (1832), outlines what has become defined as the “fog of war”. He describes the “fog of war” as,

“War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.” (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

The recent flooding on the internet of “highly classified Pentagon documents” revealing, amongst other things, the strategy of Ukraine in its upcoming offensive against Putin’s forces, has caused an outbreak of public anger both in the US and in Ukraine, as well as amongst Ukraine’s international supporters in its war with Putin.

Update 1 : BBC News : 12 April 2023

As reported by Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood (right),

“Highly classified Pentagon documents leaked online in recent weeks have provided a rare window into how the US spies on allies and foes alike, deeply rattling US officials, who fear the revelations could jeopardize sensitive sources and compromise important foreign relationships.
…
 The official also pointed out that it was alarming to see one of the documents from February titled “Russia-Ukraine: Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023.” The document notes the challenges with assessing the “endurance of Ukraine’s operations.” (CNN : 10 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Update 2: Alex Hern has just reported that,

“A damaging batch of documents leaked from the Pentagon appears to have been initially shared on the video game chat platform Discord in an effort to win an argument about the war in Ukraine, according to open-source intelligence analysts.
…
The bizarre provenance of the leak may seem unusual but it is far from the first time that a dispute between gamers has sparked an intelligence breach, with the overlapping communities causing problems for military and gaming platforms alike” (The Guardian : 11 April 2023) (my emphasis)

This “leak of Pentagon documents” has, no doubt, emboldened Putin to accelerate his “scorched earth” strategy against Ukraine. 

As reported by Arpan Rai and Maryam Zakir-Hussain (left),

“A Ukrainian general says Russia is sending more elite troops including special forces to support the Wagner Group in the battle for Bakhmut, amid signs of fatigue.
…
He added that Vladimir Putin’s soldiers are “actively using their artillery and aviation, destroying the city that they cannot capture”. (The independent : 11 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Putin’s “scorched earth” strategy against Ukraine, Putin’s ‘glove puppet’ Dmitry Medvedev’s latest contribution to “political debate” stated that Ukraine was “not needed by its citizens themselves”.

As reported by John Varga,

“In his latest contribution to “political debate”, the former deputy prime minister [Dmitry Medvedev] once again took aim at Ukraine’s status as a sovereign state.

He claimed that it will cease to exist because neither the USA, Europe nor Africa needed a “post-Soviet republic”.

He added that the country was “not needed by its citizens themselves“. (Express : 8 April 2023) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting,

“In language that closely resembled Nazi-era terminology, [Dmitry Medvedev]  branded the country’s political leaders as “under-Ukrainians”. The German Nazis called the Jews “Under people” (Untermenschen), as well as the Slavs.” (ibid John Varga) (my emphasis)

If the current “leaked Pentagon documents” have emboldened Putin to continue with his ‘scorched earth’ strategy against Ukraine, it would seem that Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron have made a “political deal” during their recent tête-à-tête in Beijing in which :-

• Xi Jinping would pressure Putin to negotiate an end to his war with Ukraine 
• whilst Macron would try to distance the EU from the current spat between the US and China over Taiwan.

As reported by Jennifer Rankin (right),

“Emmanuel Macron has flown into a storm of criticism after he said Europe should not become a “vassal” and must avoid being drawn into any conflict between the US and China over Taiwan.
…
Rahman added that Macron’s interview was being seen as a parting gift to Xi – “another doomed attempt (after Putin) to sweet-talk an autocrat” – and suggested the French president may have been trying to boost his poll ratings in France by emulating De Gaulle. (The Guardian : 10 April 2023) (my emphasis)

What is rather puzzling is that notwithstanding the recent flooding on the internet of “highly classified Pentagon documents”, and an acceleration of Putin’s ‘scorched earth” strategy against Ukraine, Tim McNulty reported that,

“Vladimir Putin has reportedly declared a willingness to open negotiations with NATO over Ukraine during a meeting with İbrahim Kalın, the Presidential Spokesperson of Turkey. The Kremlin’s representative, Dmitriy Peskov, announced that during the meeting Putin admitted that Russia was not looking to escape talk over Ukraine indefinitely, and was prepared to enter into talks to end the conflict which has left thousands dead and displaced millions of people.” (Express : 7 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Tim McNulty further reported that the day BEFORE Putin ostensibly declared his “willingness” for some sort of ‘peace talks’ to end his war with Ukraine,

“….. Chinese leader Xi Jinping called Thursday for peace talks over Ukraine after French President Emmanuel Macron appealed to him to “bring Russia to its senses,” but Xi gave no indication Beijing would use its leverage as Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic partner to press for a settlement. (ibid Tim McNulty)

 As Carl von Clausewitz wrote in 1832,

“War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.”

Pacing around in his bunker, has Putin wrapped himself up in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty in his ongoing war with Ukraine?

(to be continued)