Has Putin now lit the fuse for WW3?

On Friday 10th March, Xi Jinping was unanimously elected as head of the ruling Communist Party of China.

As reported by Oli Smith (left),

“Xi Jinping will reign over China for at least the next five years after he was handed a historic third five-year term as Chinese president. Mr Xi was unanimously elected as president for a third term on Friday in what was seen as a rubber-stamp vote at the National People’s Congress (NPC). The nearly 3,000 members of the NPC – China’s largely ceremonial parliament – voted for President Xi, with no one voting against him.” (Express : Friday March 10 2023) (my emphasis)

Al Jazeera : 11 March 2023 : YouTube

Coincidentally (?), on the same day as Xi Jinping was elected as President of China, Firstpost reports that,

“A top Chinese think tank close to the nation’s armed forces has predicted that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end before autumn of 2023, according to a report.

Beijing considered the assessment to be solid enough to try to assume the role of a mediator in the standoff before it potentially ends, said Russia Today citing Japan’s Nikkei newspaper.” (Firstpost : 10 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Underlining the Chinese Think Tank predicting that Putin’s war with Ukraine will end before the autumn of this year, Reuters reports that,

“Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to travel to Russia to meet his counterpart Vladimir Putin as soon as next week, people familiar with the matter said, which would be sooner than previously expected.

Plans for a visit come as China has been offering to broker peace in Ukraine, an effort that has been met with scepticism in the West given Beijing’s diplomatic support for Russia. (Reuters : 13 March 2023) (my emphasis)

What is even more interesting, as reported by the South China Morning Post,

“A senior White House official has praised a reported plan by Chinese President Xi Jinping to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and confirmed US President Joe Biden’s “willingness” to schedule a talk with the Chinese leader.

“We have been encouraging President Xi to reach out to President Zelensky because we believe that the PRC and President Xi himself should hear directly the Ukrainian perspective and not just the Russian perspective on this,” National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday.” (Yahoo News (South China Morning Post) : 14 March 2023) (my emphasis)

WION : 14 March 2023 : YouTube

As I wrote in my previous blog entry (9 March 2023), Gideon Rachman (left) reported that,

“Xi Jinping has called Vladimir Putin his best friend. But now the Russian leader is in urgent need of help from China. Putin’s army is bogged down in Ukraine and running short of ammunition.

Should Xi prove that he is a friend indeed by supplying Russia with weapons? China’s decision will say a lot about how it sees the future of the world.

A choice to supply Russia with weapons would suggest that China believes that intensified rivalry with the US is unavoidable — and perhaps desirable. By contrast, a decision not to give Russia weapons would indicate that China still believes that tensions with the US are manageable and that globalisation can be saved.” (Financial Times : 6 March 2023) (my emphasis)

That Putin is in need of urgent help is best exemplified by the fact that,

“Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova (right) has confirmed infighting in the Kremlin inner circle and that the government has lost centralized control over the Russian information space, a Washington-based think tank reports.
…
The assessment of The [Russian] Institute for the Study of War’s says Zakharova acknowledged the Kremlin cannot replicate the Stalinist approach of establishing a modern equivalent to the Soviet Information Bureau to centrally control Moscow’s message because of fighting among unspecified Kremlin “elites.”  (John Bacon and Jorge L. Ortiz : USA Today : 12 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Snejana Farberov,

“Russian President Vladimir Putin has resorted to retrofitting hundreds of decades-old Soviet tanks to be battle-ready — as the country’s stockpile of modern tanks dwindles.

Andrey Gurulev (left), a member of the Russian parliament, released a video Saturday showing his recent visit to a repair plant outside the remote city of Chita that has been tasked with modernizing 800 obsolete T-62M tanks, reported the Russian outlet Chita.ru.” (New York Post : 13 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Against this backdrop of Kremlin infighting, and Putin now having to resort to the refurbishment of decades old Russian tanks,  Alan Charlish and Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk report that,

“Poland could give Ukraine MiG-29 fighter jets in the coming four to six weeks, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Tuesday, suggesting that Kyiv’s allies were moving closer to an agreement on the next step in their military support for the country” (Reuters : 14 March 2023) (my emphasis) 

Furthermore, as reported by RFERL,

“Media in Finland have reported that Prime Minister Sanna Marin is prepared to discuss providing U.S.-made fighter jets to Ukraine. Marin, who visited Kyiv on March 10, said Helsinki plans to purchase 64 modern F-35A fighters to replace 62 Hornet fighters. The Hornets could be provided to Ukraine, Marin has said, although she noted that discussions are at a preliminary stage.” (RFERL : 11 March 2023) (my emphasis)          

Could it be these critical developments in favour of Ukraine that has forced a top Chinese think tank close to the nation’s armed forces to predict that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end before autumn of 2023? 

Could it also be these developments that have made Putin lash out, as reported by Maighna Nanu, that,

“Ben Wallace, the British Defence Secretary, has urged Moscow to respect international airspace, after the United States said that Russia had caused one of its drones to crash into the Black Sea on Tuesday.” ? (MSN (The Telegraph) : 15 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Al Jazeera : 15 March 2023 : YouYube

As also reported by Helen Sullivan (left),

“Secretary of the national security and defence council of Ukraine, Oleksiy Danilov, has said that the drone incident shows that Russia is willing to expand its war.

He posted to social media to say “The incident with the American MQ-9 Reaper UAV, provoked by Russia in the Black Sea, is Putin’s signal of readiness to expand the conflict zone with the involvement of other parties.” (The Guardian : 15 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Has Putin now lit the fuse for WW3?

(to be continued)