Will Xi Jinping throw Putin under the political bus?

The internationally announced “peace plan” of Xi Jinping to end Putin’s war with Ukraine shares much in common with the Minsk “peace plans” of Angela Merkel, a “peace plan” that had Putin’s fingerprints all over it.

The Minsk I and Minsk II “peace plans” pushed by Merkel onto Ukraine had, as its backdrop, the agenda of Merkel (and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder) for the building of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that would have not only supplied Germany with cheap gas but, more importantly, made Germany the very hub of Putin’s gas exports into the EU.

In like fashion, Emperor Xi Jinping is more than happy to suck cheap gas imports from Putin to offset Russia’s loss of revenue from the EU due to the near drying up of EU imports of gas from Russia.

As Hayes Brown reported,

“As Russia flounders under the weight of Western sanctions and stalled offensive, China will “do enough to sustain a friendly regime in the Kremlin — and advance Chinese national interests — by purchasing Russian natural resources at knockdown prices, expanding the market for Chinese technology, promoting Chinese technological standards, and making the renminbi the default regional currency of northern Eurasia,” [Alexander] Gabuev [Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace] wrote. (MSNBC : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)

But let us examine Emperor Xi Jinping’s “peace plan”.

As reported by  Ukrainska Pravda

“China has proposed its so-called “peace plan”, publishing “China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis” on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The published document has 12 points:

•  Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
•  Abandoning the Cold War mentality
•  Ceasing hostilities
  
•  Resuming peace talks
•  Resolving the humanitarian crisis
•  Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs)
•  Keeping nuclear power plants safe
•  Reducing strategic risks
•  Facilitating grain exports
•  Stopping unilateral sanctions
  
•  Keeping industrial and supply chains stable
•  Promoting post-conflict reconstruction (Yahoo News (Ukrainska Pravda) : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)
  

 In the words of US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, .

“China can’t have it BOTH ways when it comes to Russian aggression in Ukraine. It can’t be putting forward ‘peace proposals’, on the one hand,  while actually feeding the flames of what Russia started …”(US Today : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

The ‘political’ and ‘economic’ upper hand that Xi Jinping now has over Putin is due, in no part, to the fact that,

“Vladimir Putin is ‘terribly scared’ as he marks the first anniversary of his invasion of Ukraine, says an ex-Russian secret services general.

The Russian dictator has badly misread the West’s resolve to stand up to him, and did not realise his army’s incompetence, according to the former chief of the Moscow division of the FSB.

‘Putin perfectly understands the mood of people who have lost everything because of him,’ said retired General Yevgeny Savostyanov. ‘He understands this anger can find a way out, so he keeps them away.” (Will Stewart and Chris Jewers : Mail Online : 24 February 2023) (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin’s growing fears, PBS News (Associated Press) report that,

“The Biden administration on Tuesday pledged to support the independence of the five Central Asian nations, in a not-so-subtle warning to the former Soviet states that Russia’s value as a partner has been badly compromised by its year-old war against Ukraine.” (PBS News : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

C5+1 group, made up of the U.S. and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

And now, we also have Israel pivoting towards supplying Ukraine with defensive arms.

As reported by  Tovah Lazaroff,

“Netanyahu returned to power in late December amid expectations that he would pivot Israel in the direction of Russia. He has instead shored up his country’s backing of Kyiv under pressure from Israel’s most significant ally, the U.S. Now he has to weigh alienating Putin by providing defensive arms to Ukraine, a move he has yet to agree to and which Russia has already made it clear would be a red line.
…
Senior Israeli lawmakers have already called on Netanyahu to provide Ukraine with anti-drone and anti-missile systems.
…
They promised Zelenskyy to do everything possible to help ensure Israel sends defensive weapons.” (NBC News : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

The Kremlin vultures are now beginning to swoop in on Putin.

As reported by David Brennan

“President Vladimir Putin’s top spokesperson has urged Russians to be “patient” on questions about the dictator’s future, as the war in Ukraine wears on with no end in sight and presidential elections in both Russia and Ukraine looming in 2024.

Dmitry Peskov told the Russian Izvestia newspaper in an interview published on Tuesday that the elections scheduled for next year will be held, but Putin isn’t yet ready to announce whether he will take part, as is widely expected.” (Newsweek : 28 February 2023) (my emphasis)

Relying on Chinese President Xi Jinping to bail him out from his current precarious position is all that Putin now has left to ensure his political survival.

Xi Jinping now has to decide whether it is in China’s long term interests to throw Putin under the bus.

(to be continued)